What Is a State Pension Forecast?
A State Pension forecast is a personalised estimate from the Department for Work and Pensions (DWP) showing how much State Pension you are currently on track to receive. Unlike simply checking your National Insurance record – which shows individual qualifying years – a forecast takes your entire NI history, including any pre-2016 entitlements, contracted-out deductions, and protected payments, and converts it into a single weekly pension figure.
Your forecast will tell you three essential things: the estimated weekly amount you will receive, your State Pension age (the earliest date you can claim), and whether there are any steps you can take to increase your pension before you reach that age.
How to Get Your State Pension Forecast Online
The fastest way to obtain your forecast is through the GOV.UK online service. The process takes just a few minutes:
- Visit GOV.UK – Search for “check your State Pension forecast” or go directly to the State Pension area of your personal tax account
- Sign in – Use your GOV.UK One Login or Government Gateway account. If you do not have one, you will need to create it with your NI number and photo ID
- View your forecast – Your estimated weekly pension, State Pension age, and improvement options are displayed immediately
By Phone
Call the Future Pension Centre on 0800 731 0175 (free from UK phones). An adviser can provide your forecast over the phone. Lines are open Monday to Friday, 8am to 6pm.
By Post
Complete form BR19 (available on GOV.UK) and send it to the address on the form. A written forecast will be posted to you within 10 working days.
Understanding Your Forecast
Your State Pension forecast contains several pieces of information. Here is what each section means and why it matters for your retirement planning.
Your Estimated Weekly Amount
This is the headline figure – the amount of State Pension you are projected to receive each week based on your NI record to date. It assumes you will not gain or lose any further qualifying years before you reach State Pension age. If the figure is below £230.25 per week, your forecast should explain what is causing the shortfall.
Your State Pension Age
The forecast confirms the exact date you will reach State Pension age and can begin claiming. The current State Pension age is 66, rising to 67 between May 2026 and March 2028. Future increases to 68 are planned but the timetable is subject to review.
How to Improve Your Forecast
If you are not on track for the full amount, your forecast will outline what you can do. Common recommendations include continuing to work and pay NI contributions, claiming NI credits you may be entitled to, or paying voluntary National Insurance contributions to fill gaps.
| Forecast Scenario | What It Means | Typical Action |
|---|---|---|
| Full amount (£230.25/week) | You have 35+ qualifying years | No action needed – you are on track for the maximum |
| Below full but still building | You have fewer than 35 years but are still working | Continue working to add qualifying years |
| Below full with gaps | Your record has gaps reducing your total | Consider paying voluntary contributions to fill gaps |
| Contracted-out reduction | Your pension is reduced because you were contracted out | You may need additional years after 2016 to rebuild |
| Above the full amount | Your pre-2016 record gave you a protected payment | No action needed – your pension exceeds the standard full amount |
Why Your Forecast Might Be Less Than the Full Amount
There are several reasons your forecast may show a figure below the full £230.25 per week:
Not Enough Qualifying Years
The most straightforward reason. You need 35 qualifying years for the full amount. If you have fewer, your pension is proportionally reduced. Each qualifying year is worth approximately £6.58 per week. See our guide on how many NI years you need for a detailed breakdown.
Contracted-Out Deduction
If you were a member of a workplace pension scheme that was contracted out of the Additional State Pension (SERPS or S2P) before April 2016, your starting amount will include a deduction. This is because you and your employer paid lower NI contributions during those years, with the difference going into your workplace pension instead. Read more in our contracted-out guide.
Gaps in Your NI Record
Periods where you did not pay NI and did not receive credits count as gaps. Common causes include earning below the NI threshold, career breaks, time spent abroad, or self-employment where Class 2 contributions were not paid. You can check your NI record to see exactly where the gaps are.
How to Improve Your State Pension Forecast
If your forecast shows less than the full amount, there are practical steps you can take:
- Keep working – Every year you work and pay NI above the primary threshold adds a qualifying year to your record
- Claim NI credits – If you are caring for a child under 12, looking after a disabled person, or claiming certain benefits, make sure you are receiving the NI credits you are entitled to
- Pay voluntary contributions – Filling gaps by paying Class 3 contributions at £907.40 per year can add approximately £342 per year to your State Pension for life
- Check for errors – If your record has years marked as incomplete that you believe should be full, contact HMRC with evidence such as payslips or P60s
- Transfer Specified Adult Childcare credits – Grandparents who provide childcare can receive NI credits transferred from the working parent
Forecast vs. NI Record: What Is the Difference?
Your NI record and your State Pension forecast are related but serve different purposes. Your NI record shows every individual tax year and whether it counts as a qualifying year. Your forecast takes that raw data, applies the pension calculation rules (including your pre-2016 starting amount and any contracted-out deductions), and produces a single estimated pension figure.
Think of your NI record as the ingredients and your forecast as the finished dish. You need to check both: the NI record to identify specific problems, and the forecast to understand their overall impact on your retirement income.
When to Request a Forecast
There is no wrong time to check, but these are particularly useful moments:
- At age 50 – Early enough to take meaningful action if your forecast is below the full amount
- After a major life change – Such as leaving employment, becoming self-employed, or returning from living abroad
- Before paying voluntary contributions – To confirm whether buying extra years will actually increase your pension
- 5 years before State Pension age – Final planning window to maximise your entitlement
- When planning retirement income – To integrate your State Pension with workplace pensions, savings, and other income sources